Election likely to be earlier than later

As speculation swirls around the timing of the next general election, remarks from election commissioners, along with historical precedents, suggest that the much-anticipated 13th national election will likely be held in December or January.
Sources within the Election Commission said that they were considering December for the elections because going to the ballots between February and June might not be feasible on account of the Ramadan, HSC exams and the monsoon.
Usually, national elections do not take place during Ramadan, the month of fasting for Muslims. Also, election date is scheduled in such manner that the preceding three weeks of campaigning do not coincide with Ramadan days either. Electioneering during this time is typically avoided, as it seriously limits campaigning. Elections during Ramadan would mean low voters' participation and challenging campaign logistics.
Candidates get at least 21 days to campaign, and the Ramadan is set to begin on February 17 or 18 in 2026.
"If we follow the usual practice, we will not be able to hold the elections until mid-April. But that is not feasible as Higher Secondary Certificate (HSC) and equivalent public examinations usually begin in April. These exams take about a month," said a top election official.
Top election officials explained that it is customary to avoid dates that conflict with public board exams, religious festivals and weather conditions. Even the typical cyclone season is also avoided for holding elections.
Chief Election Commissioner AMM Nasir Uddin on Sunday noted that Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus said the next general election could be held at the end of this year or in the first half of next year, depending on the reforms political parties agree to.
If the election is to be held in December, all preparations, laws, and regulations must be finalised, and necessary arrangements must be made by October, he said, adding, "May–June is the rainy season, and elections have not been held during this time in the past."
Election Commissioner Brig Gen (retd) Abul Fazal Md Sanaullah on Tuesday was more precise when he said preparations for the national election are underway targeting December.
Senior election officials further mentioned that would be tight for the commission to hold elections before December, as there is a long 'to do list'. The commission will have to update electoral rolls, complete delimitation of constituencies, register new political parties, set up voting stations, organise a panel of polling officials, and, if necessary, amend electoral laws.
Adding to the complications, the EC must await outcomes of the reforms proposed by the commissions to determine the extent of changes required to electoral laws and logistics if any. Until these reforms are finalised, the EC cannot proceed with full-scale preparations.
The election chief on Sunday said that tasks like demarcation of parliamentary constituencies and political party registration take time. The commission has received numerous applications for delimitation, but it is unable to start working due to legal issues, he said.
"Still, we are confident. We have to overcome these challenges. We are doing our preliminary work and homework so that as soon as the rules of the game are fixed, we can jump into action," he said, adding that the EC has started the new voter registration process as well.
Past Elections
Bangladesh has witnessed 12 national elections since independence of which only two—the ones in 1986 and 1996—were not held in the typically dry months between October and March. Since the restoration of democracy in 1991, six of the seven national polls have been held during winter.
The first national election in independent Bangladesh was held on March 7, 1973. The next election was held on February 28, 1979, and the third election took place on May 7, 1986.
The fourth parliamentary elections were held on March 3, 1988, and the fifth general elections were held on February 27, 1991, under an interim government.
The sixth parliamentary election was held on February 15, 1996, and the seventh on June 12, 1996, under a caretaker government.
The election to the eighth parliament was held on October 1, 2001, the ninth parliamentary election was held on December 29, 2008, and the tenth election was held on January 5, 2014.
The eleventh parliamentary polls were held on December 30, 2018, and the 12th on January 7, 2024.
The seventh general election was held on June 12, 1996, barely four months after the sixth election as the Awami League and other opposition parties forced the ruling BNP-led government to step down and hand over to a caretaker government for conducting elections. The opposition parties had boycotted the February 1996 elections.
A caretaker government headed by former Chief Justice Mohammad Habibur Rahman was sworn in on April 3.
As Bangladesh inches closer to the election season and political quarters become more vocal for an election, scenarios point towards an increasing likelihood of the nation going to the ballots earlier, rather than later.
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